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Why forecasting how hot it will be in 2022 is mostly a gimmick

14 August 2018

A girl plays in a fountain

Sunny days are here to stay

JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images

Expect a lot more heat in coming years. The world will warm at an even faster rate from 2018 to 2022 than the underlying global warming trend, according to a forecasting method so simple it can run on a laptop.

We are fairly good at predicting the weather for the next few days. Long-term forecasts of the climate are also already proving reliable. Yet what would be really useful would be detailed forecasts for the months and years ahead.

The chaotic nature of weather means it will never be possible to…

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