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A MONSTER earthquake could soon shake the Tokyo region say Japanese seismologists. The Japanese capital is near the Tokai fault, where the Philippine Sea plate slips under the Eurasian plate at the rate of a few centimetres a year. The researchers fear that recent changes in seismic activity may herald the next “big one”.

Hundreds of small earthquakes measuring at least 1.5 on the Richter scale occur every year. But the pattern has become increasingly erratic in the past four years. Last October, the number of these microquakes on the Eurasian plate was about half the normal level. Before that,…

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