Fair forecast

Did you place a bet following New Scientist’s predictions for the
Winter Olympics medal table? The two Harvard economists who made projections
based on economic and geographical factors
(New Scientist, 16 February, p 8)
correctly forecast a German victory. The British team won one fewer medal
than the two predicted, but did achieve the lone gold they foresaw. In terms of
the total medals haul, the economists correctly predicted the first four teams,
but in the wrong order. The US and Norway would have achieved their predicted
positions of third and fourth if the Russians, favourites for second, hadn’t put…