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What are the Chances? by Bart Holland, The Johns Hopkins University Press, £17/ $24.95, ISBN 0801869412

IF YOU have ever wondered about the chances of a Prussian cavalryman being kicked to death by his horse or if you prefer to work out your own life expectancy by staring at life tables, then Bart Holland’s excellent primer on probability is a great place to start. He even explains Henri Poincaré’s technique for finding out if your baker is diddling you.

An unexpected strength of What are the Chances? is Holland’s discussion about testing hypotheses, which illustrates how probability is an…

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