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Alien life gets more and more probable every day

By Jeff Hecht

18 May 2002

THE latest attempt to work out how much alien life is out there suggests there may be a lot more than most people thought.

According to a new statistical analysis based on how quickly life got going on Earth, life will start on at least a third of Earth-like planets within a billion years of them developing suitable conditions. And with recent discoveries that planets are common around Sun-like stars, there’s probably no shortage of prospective homes.

Earlier attempts to estimate the likelihood of life on Earth-like planets floundered because we have only a single data point—the Earth itself. Isotopic…

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