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THREE hurricanes in quick succession are enough to grab anyone’s attention. With the Caribbean reeling from just such a triple whammy, the south-eastern US is wondering what on earth caused so many to sweep through in less than two months. Among the first suspects, at least from non-scientists, is “global warming”.

Well, it might be…or it might not. There were several years during the 20th century when three hurricanes hit the region in a single season. It could just be normal variation. Global climate models can’t predict with much certainty, and that has been their Achilles’ heel when it comes…

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