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The long-running battle over the fate of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge may come to a head this week – or then again, it may not. Nothing about this struggle is predictable amid the political turmoil that surrounds the pristine but oil-rich tundra along Alaska’s north coast.

Pro-oil forces won a victory on 3 November when the US Senate voted by a narrow margin to open the 8-million-hectare refuge to oil drilling. Unable to muster the 60 votes needed to override a filibuster, Senate leaders tucked the drilling measure into a budget bill, for which filibusters are not allowed. The measure…

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