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IT BECAME clear this week that H5N1 flu has done exactly what scientists said it would do – after infecting poultry throughout east Asia, it has swept west towards Europe. The virus has now infected poultry flocks all over Turkey, leading inevitably to cases in people.

It is pretty clear now that wild water birds are carrying the virus. We do not know how many are infected, but they could spread the infection to the rest of Asia next and to Africa, where the prevalence of backyard chickens, poverty and HIV will be an explosive mix. The more humans are infected,…

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