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Earth

Californian quake before 2037 almost inevitable

16 April 2008

New Scientist. Science news and long reads from expert journalists, covering developments in science, technology, health and the environment on the website and the magazine.

The aftermath of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

(Image: H D Chadwick, US Government War Department/Wikimedia Commons)

BAD news for Californians. The US Geological Survey has released its first ever earthquake forecast for the whole state, and the odds don’t look good.

“The odds don’t look good, especially for those living in southern California”

The three-year study, commissioned by insurance conglomerate the California Earthquake Authority, combined empirical evidence on prior earthquakes with the physical data from various fault lines in the region and precise satellite information about movements of the Earth’s surface.

According to the study, there is a 99.7…

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