From John E. Thornes, University of Birmingham
Birmingham
Fred Pearce states: “John Thornes of the University of Birmingham told the
Royal Meteorological Society that the accuracy of the Meteorological Office’s
forecasts has fallen from 80 to 65 per cent over the decade since the 1987
storm” (This Week, 4 January, p 5). This implies that the accuracy of all
weather forecasts has fallen in the last decade, which is certainly not the
case.
What I actually stated was that the percentage accuracy of Limited Area Model
24-hour forecasts for rain in London had fallen from 78 per cent in 1986 to 65
per cent in 1994. I speculated that this was due to the dry weather that
Southeast England has suffered over the last decade. In other words, rain
forecast for London by the Met Office’s Limited Area Model did not materialise
on more than a third of occasions.
However, these computerised forecasts are slightly improved upon by the Met
Office’s Central Forecast Office (now called National Meteorological Centre NMC)
before issue. The CFO forecasters achieved an accuracy of rain forecasts for
London of 79 per cent in 1986, falling to 74 per cent in 1994.
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