From Hector Parr
Barnard Castle, Co Durham
By a simpler version of Gott’s argument, whenever he visits a building there
is a 50 per cent probability that his visit occurs during the second half of the
building’s lifetime. So it is fortunate that he was not around to visit
Westminster Abbey or St Paul’s Cathedral shortly after they were built.
The fallacy of the argument, of course, lies in confusing the ensemble over
which the probability is applied. It may be true that, of all the visits people
make to St Paul’s, half will lie within the second half of its lifetime. But it
does not follow that, of all the buildings visited by Gott, half will be visited
during the second half of their lives.
