From A. Cassera
Wokingham, Berkshire
An everyday example of a situation that could be improved by Bayes theorem is
the prosecution of criminals. When a person is on trial the prosecution is not
allowed to present a previous criminal record as evidence. Character witnesses
of “good character” are allowed. The law recognises that a past record of
similar offences must change the likelihood ratio as defined in the article.
The chagrin of a jury who acquits a person only to discover that he has been
found guilty of many similar crimes previously, demonstrates how prior evidence
can change the interpretation of current evidence. Personally, I see a record of
previous convictions as very relevant evidence and would like to see it
allowed.
