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Letter: Peak problem

Published 22 March 2005

From Stella Waterhouse

I was a little confused by the graph from the Japanese study in your report on autism and the MMR vaccine (5 March, p 16). It seemed to show that the vaccine was stopped in 1993/94 and that autism peaked in 1994. Unless I read it incorrectly, would it not be possible that some of those affected in 1994 would have actually also been in the group which received the MMR?

Michael Le Page writes:

• Several readers have asked this question. The graph shows the number of children born in a particular year who developed autism by age 7. It does not show the year in which they developed autism. A correct reading of the graph will show that, for example, among children born in 1993 – who received MMR – some 90 in 10,000 subsequently developed autism, whereas among children born in 1994 – who did not receive MMR – some 160 in 10,000 developed autism. So the high rate of autism among children who had been born in 1994 cannot be related to the vaccine.

Salcombe, Devon, UK

Issue no. 2492 published 26 March 2005

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