From George Monbiot
In a Comment and Analysis article late last year, Peter Odell poured scorn on the idea that global supplies of oil might be about to go into long-term decline (6 November 2004, p 22). Those who claimed there was a problem, he contended, “were wrong on every count”. There are “enough reserves of conventional oil that can be economically exploited at last year’s prices to meet current demand for more than 40 years”.
Odell was kind enough to give us a means of measuring the accuracy of his predictions. “The current price of oil,” he told us, “just below $50 per barrel at the time of going to press, is abnormally high. The high price will not last: a fall in demand as a result of the high prices, along with an easing of political problems, should bring it down to around $35 per barrel by early next year.”
“Early next year” has now been and gone. At the beginning of January, the price of Brent crude was just over $40. That is the lowest it has gone so far (I write on 26 May). In mid-March, Brent crude hit a record high of $55.53. The average price in April was $53.42 a barrel, and in the first 25 days of May, $49.56. Yesterday, it topped $50 again. Yet OPEC claims it is pumping at full capacity.
Given Odell’s score in the only test that counts, how seriously should we take his claim that there is nothing to worry about?
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Oxford, UK
