From John Woodgate
Peter Turchin’s “cliodynamics” method of predictive history (18 August, p 46) was predicted in considerable detail by Isaac Asimov in his classic novel Foundation – although Turchin may be early, since that was set 24,000 years in the future.
An important principle stated early on is that the predictive power of cliodynamics – which Asimov called “psychohistory” – is fatally damaged if the detailed predictions are known to more than a few.
Turchin’s 50-year cycle may be a rediscovery of the 70-year economic cycle proposed in 1925 by Nikolai Kondratiev.
Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
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“There is a tide in the affairs of men” (William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act 4, scene 3).
We fail again and again, however, to learn from the past: and now history is a discipline in decline due to lack of interest.
Buderim, Queensland, Australia
Rayleigh, Essex, UK
