From Simon Kay
As a petroleum geologist engaged in the search for oil and gas, I was encouraged by David Deutsch’s words that “the awful secret at the heart of probability theory is that physical events either happen or they don’t: there’s no such thing in nature as probably happening” (3 October, p 30). When we plan to drill for oil or gas, management require an estimated probability of success (POS) between 0 and 1.
We concoct POS values based on combining the chances of a number of favourable geological factors existing simultaneously. I always felt that we either would find oil or gas, or we wouldn’t. Yet this logic would be frowned upon as unscientific or just laughed at. I feel vindicated.
Bradford-on-Avon, Wiltshire, UK
