Letter: Estimating odds against spotting a thylacine

From Andrew Smith, Leongatha, Victoria, Australia

I have been chastising friends who believe thylacines may still be running around the Australian bush, quoting the 1 in 1.6 trillion chance that Alice Klein reports (22 April, p 11).

Now environment researcher Bill Laurance believes the chance they still exist on Cape York peninsula is a more likely “1 to 2 per cent” (6 May, p 40).

I would have thought, though, that checking the DNA in scats would be a more efficient and accurate way of verifying them as non-extinct than using 50 camera traps. It might be less convincing to the general public, however, or less lucrative than footage from a camera trap.